Dataset Number 2725 Dataset Title South Australian climate projections (NARCliM 1.5) Status Published Metadata Maintained by DEW SMK

Description Category Atmosphere Theme Climate Keywords and Qualifiers CLIMATE AND WEATHER Climate Change CLIMATE AND WEATHER Extreme weather events CLIMATE AND WEATHER Rainfall CLIMATE AND WEATHER Temperature Dataset Type Spatial Description South Australian climate projections were developed using data from the New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling project (NARCliM 1.5). The NARCliM 1.5 climate projection downscaling project provides climate simulations for 1951 to 2100 on daily and monthly timesteps from six global/regional climate model combinations and two emissions scenarios. The base dataset is compiled in grid format (netcdf format data files) at grid resolutions of 10 km and 50 km. The part of South Australia to the west of a line passing approximately north-south between Ceduna and Coober Pedy has simulations of 50 km resolution. To the east of this line both 10 km and 50 km resolutions are available. At each grid point, the trend relative to the 1986 to 2005 baseline period was calculated for each of the six model combinations. The average trend of all six was then calculated for each grid point. For regional data, the mean was taken of the value of all grid points in that region. NARCLiM1.5 also includes model projection data of rainfall and temperature bias-corrected against observed gridded datasets. Actual projected values in this dataset are drawn from bias-corrected datasets. Projections are provided for multiple temperature, rainfall and extreme temperatures variables, five time periods (baseline (1985-2005), 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079 and 2080-2099) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Projections are provided across annual and seasonal time periods for temperature and rainfall variables. Dataset Use These South Australia climate projections are intended for use in planning and risk assessments. Further recommendations about the use of these projections can be found in the Guide to Climate Projections for Risk Assessment and Planning in SA. The projections are the average of six combinations of global and regional climate models. There is considerable variability among the six models in their projections of temperature and rainfall, however this data as a model ensemble average does not depict this variation. The range of variation among the six models can be seen in the regional projection tables in sections 6-7 of the Guide to Climate Projections for Risk Assessment and Planning in SA. The modelling is undertaken at 10 km and 50 km resolution (in the east and west of the state respectively) and each grid cell is represented by a single value. Inferences should not be made below this resolution. Projections for each of the Landscape SA and Local Health Network regions are an average based on the values in the underlying grid cells. There will likely be significant spatial variation in the projections within these regions, which is shown more clearly in the grid cell values. Projections relate to the average climate over a timescale of decades. Within this timescale, averages of rainfall and temperature may fluctuate significantly over a period of years, within the context of the longer-term trend depicted in these projections. SDE Feature Class Name CLIMATE.Projections_Grid10km CLIMATE.Projections_Grid50km CLIMATE.Projections_GridStatewide CLIMATE.Projections_LandscapeRegions CLIMATE.Projections_HealthNetworks Projection/ Coordinate System GEOGRAPHIC

Custodian Data Authority Data Authority Department for Environment and Water Data Authority Name Matthew Ward Director, Science and Information Data Manager Matt Royal Manager Geospatial Environmental Data & Info Department for Environment and Water Matthew.Royal@sa.gov.au 8124 4880 Subject Matter Expert Graham Green Principal Advisor, Climate Change Science Department for Environment and Water Graham.Green@sa.gov.au 8463 7892 Data Integrity Officer Blair Pellegrino Geospatial Projects and Engagement Coordinator Department for Environment and Water Blair.Pellegrino@sa.gov.au 08 8124 4911

Data Provider Data Provider Department for Environment and Water

Data Quality Lineage Further details about the NARCliM 1.5 modelling and additional data processing undertaken to produce these climate projections can be found in the Guide to Climate Projections for Risk Assessment and Planning in SA, the technical information factsheet and the Technical Information Supporting NARCliM 1.5 South Australian Climate Projections (link pending). Completeness Climate projections are available for all grid cells where the majority of the grid cell is terrestrial. Any cells where the majority lies over the ocean or Lower Lakes are excluded, since the modelling in these cells are influenced by oceanic conditions and are not representative of the condition over land. Cells with no data are represented by the value -9999. Positional Accuracy The state is covered by a higher-resolution 10 km grid over the eastern part of the state, east of a line passing approximately north-south between Ceduna and Coober Pedy. To the west of that line, only 50 km grid cells are available. Method / Capture Scale Method Capture Scale Comment Generate Not relevant Modelling outputs

Tables

Field Description

Geographic Extent Extent Name South Australia Min Easting or Longitude 129 Min Northing or Latitude -38.25 Max Easting or Longitude 141 Max Northing or Latitude -26

Dataset Status Initially Acquired Nov 2023 Last Updated Nov 2023 Update Frequency As required Maintenance Method Datasets are updated as required by the data authority. Landscape SA and Local Health Network regions were current at the time of processing, and any subsequent changes to these boundaries may result in differences from the boundaries presented in this data. Current modelling is based on NARCliM 1.5 and will be supplemented with higher resolution projections through NARCliM 2.0 once available in 2024. Metadata Created 21-NOV-2023 If copied, source dataset Metadata updated 14/FEB/24 env\bpellegrino Authorised 22/NOV/23 env\bpellegrino Metadata Retired

Security Classification ISMF Classification Public ISMF Integrity I2 - MODERATE Requirement ISMF Availability A2 - MODERATE Requirement AusGOAL Licensing Classification CC BY (Attribution) Attribution Further considerations for supply of dataset No

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